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As measures of general economic activity in each of the states, we used total personal income data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (1994) and the unemployment rate from the U.S. Department of Labor (1981–93). As our estimate of population growth by state, we used the percentage change in the number of midyear residents, data for which came from the U.S. Bureau of the Census
Real Estate Market Conditions
The return on commercial real estate was calculated as the total return (income plus capital gain), in percentage points, on commercial real estate as measured by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (1992). These data were available for eight multistate regions. Each state was assigned the return reported for its region.
The growth rates of house prices by state were calculated as the percentage changes in NAR’s median sales prices of existing single-family homes in metropolitan areas, which are published in Existing Home Sales (NAR 1981–93). Prices for metropolitan areas were aggregated to form statewide prices by taking an unweighted average of the data for the cities in each state. States that had no city in the NAR database were assigned the median price in an economically similar, typically neighboring, state.
Commercial Bank Conditions
Our estimates of banks’ capital shortfalls and surpluses were based on Call Report data. We calculated the capital pressure on each bank as the difference between the bank’s actual (reported) tier 1 capital and a target level of tier 1 capital for the bank. Determining a bank’s capital target for each year was problematic because the definition of capital on which regulators focused changed over time, the minimum capital ratios that regulators imposed changed over time, and banks often were not told precisely what their minimum required capital ratio was.