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Technological innovations typically manifest themselves into a market along an “s-curve” timeline behavior, as shown in Figure 3.2. For a product in question, consider examining one important product metric. In the case of lighting, for example,one might consider the energy efficiency. For all of the different product(light bulbs) on the market, one can plot each product's metric value(lumens of light output perwatt) as a function of the time when each product was introduced. The metric values will naturally fall as an “s-curve” in time. First, the values are low and widely spaced: Not much innovation is occurring in the market, since it is new and difficult to introduce. Next, a rapid profusion of innovation occurs, and many products are launched in time, typically by many competitors who join the market. The lower leg of the “s” is forming. The new technology, however, eventually tops out, physical laws of the process dominate, and engineers cannot extract more performance. The slope of the “s” tops out again, and the curve becomes flatter. Typically, businesses are consolidated into a few mature competitors. This description constitutes the typical technological innovation time cycle, and the market behavior is well characterized by an s-curve.
At the top asymptote of an s-curve, though, all is not ended. Innovators typically conceive of an even newer technology that can provide even better performance. This technology is introduced for the first time into the market and then develops its own s-curve behavior. The result is two different s-curves that can be plotted on the technology introduction graph. The newer s-curve is a disruptive technology that requires changes in the market system for the product to succeed. The improved performance of the technology, though, is sufficient to force these changes. For example, the development of florescent lamps required new fixtures and ballast technology that incandescent bulbs did not require.