英语翻译
For a review of stochastic optimization,see Wets and Ziemba (1999) and,for additional theory and methods of real options,see,e.g.,Copeland and Antikarov (2001) and Trigeorgis (1997).
We begin our presentation in Section 2 by formulating the stochastic multi-stage optimization problem.Price processes are introduced,simple Monte Carlo simulation for scenario generation is discussed and straightforward optimization is employed for real option valuation in Section 3.In Section4,we propose an improved method,which employs a double binary tree together with Kalman filter for scenario generation.For option valuation,we employ a recursive approach based on dynamic
programming.The forest industry application is featured in Section 5,presenting the production technology data,the time series model of price processes for scenario generation,and numerical illustrations of the two approaches for real options valuation.
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