求英语翻译,用大众话
4Since mosteconomistsagree that internationaltrade is one of the important factors explaining financial crises, it seems natural and logical to ask the reverse question: what are the effects of financial crises on internationaltrade? Surprisingly, little research on this subject has been done. Perhaps the reason is that the answer appears to be obvious. Conventional wisdom would predict that a financial crisis, by bringing about a recession in the macroeconomy, would lead to a dropin imports. Exports, however, may rise because of both a decline in domestic demand and a devaluation of the domestic currency. A weakeningorcollapseofthefinancialsystem,in particularthebanking system, however, might weaken the country’s export capability. Thus, the aggregate effects of a financial crisis on the macro economy are unclear.